As the 2025 MLB Draft approaches, all eyes are on Ethan Holliday, one of the most talked-about prospects in the class. The Stillwater High School shortstop from Oklahoma, and younger brother of Baltimore Orioles infielder Jackson Holliday, is widely projected to go early in the first round.
According to multiple reports, the Colorado Rockies are heavily favored to select Holliday with the No. 4 overall pick. The 18-year-old is ranked as the top prospect by MLB Pipeline and sits second on ESPN’s big board. His father, former MLB All-Star Matt Holliday, began his career in Colorado, which only strengthens the speculation about Ethan heading to Denver.
But there’s been plenty of debate about whether Colorado is the best fit for Holliday’s long-term growth. The Rockies have struggled in recent years, both in terms of player development and on-field success. Some scouts and insiders have suggested that the St. Louis Cardinals, who own the No. 5 pick, would offer a more structured and development-focused environment.
There’s also a sentimental angle: Matt Holliday spent a significant portion of his career with the Cardinals and has deep ties to the franchise. That connection, paired with St. Louis’ history of grooming talent through its system, makes the Cardinals an appealing destination. Unfortunately for Cardinals fans, ESPN draft analyst Kiley McDaniel reports that it’s unlikely Holliday slips past the Rockies at No. 4.
“The feeling since the winter meetings has been that Holliday wouldn’t fall beyond the Rockies,” McDaniel noted. “If Washington passes on him at No. 1, Colorado remains the most likely landing spot. And it wouldn’t be surprising if he gets the largest bonus in this class to make that happen.”
Cardinals’ Contingency Plan: Eli Willits?
With Holliday likely off the board, McDaniel projects that St. Louis could pivot to another Oklahoma shortstop: Eli Willits from Fort Cobb-Broxton High School. Willits is believed to be No. 3 on the Cardinals’ internal draft board, following LSU pitcher Kade Anderson and Holliday.
If this projection holds, Holliday would land with the Rockies — a team currently lacking star power, while Willits would head to one of the most respected development pipelines in the league. Ironically, both shortstops hail from Oklahoma and could take drastically different paths despite similar beginnings.
What This Means for Holliday
While the Cardinals might offer a steadier environment, the Rockies could give Holliday a faster route to the majors. Colorado’s farm system needs elite talent, and Holliday could quickly become the face of the franchise. The risk, of course, is whether the organization can support his growth over the long term.
For the Cardinals, missing out on Holliday is disappointing, especially considering their family history with Matt. But if they land Willits, they’ll still be adding another high-upside talent at a position of need.
Draft Buzz and What’s Next
With only a few days until names are called, the 2025 MLB Draft continues to stir speculation around top picks and team strategies. Holliday’s projected landing spot adds to the intrigue, especially as multiple teams reportedly remain interested in the shake-up of the expected draft order.
